Transformative Scenario Planning

This day introduces the foundations of scenario planning and explains its distinct role in strategic thinking. Participants explore why traditional planning approaches fall short and how scenario planning can provide deeper insights for organisational strategy. The topics covered will include:

• Origins of Scenario Planning
• What Scenario Planning is and When to use it
• The Shortcomings of Traditional Strategic Management Approaches
• How Scenario Planning Works
• An Overview of the Phases of the Process and the Timescales Involved

Assembling a Team that Represents the Whole System

• Choosing a ‘Convening Team’
• Assembling a ‘Plausible Future’ vs. a ‘Delphi’ Panel that both Represent the Whole System
• Selecting Key Members / Actors for the Panel
• Allowing Time for the Panel to (a) transform their understandings, relationships, and intentions (Phases 1 to 4) and (b) adapt to and transform the system (Phase 5)
• Understanding Your Own and Other’s biases in Thinking, Planning and Communicating

This day introduces the foundations of scenario planning and explains its distinct role in strategic thinking. Participants explore why traditional planning approaches fall short and how scenario planning can provide deeper insights for organisational strategy. The topics covered will include:

• Enabling the Panel to Examine the Current Reality in and Around the Overall System
• Determining the Driving Forces of the System: Events, Patterns, Trends and Structures / Processes
• Creating a Space that Enables Trust, Safety, Autonomy, Re-perceiving and Dialogue
• Using Facilitation to Exploit Divergent, Emergent and Convergent Thinking
• Deciding on ‘Learning Journeys’ / Field Visits, White Papers, Researchers and ‘Remarkable Persons’
• Listing ‘Certainties’ and ‘Uncertainties’ in and Around the System

This day teaches how to transform analytical insights into compelling scenario narratives. Participants explore methods for constructing logical, consequential stories that capture multiple potential futures. The topics covered will include:   

• Determining Two Major Uncertainties / Dimensional Axes
• Designing Four Scenarios around the Two Uncertainties using both Deductive and Inductive Thinking
• Conceiving Non-obvious Scenarios using Inductive Thinking
• Transforming the Final Four Scenarios into Logical, Consequential Stories
• Finding Metaphors, Images and Titles for each Scenario
• Documenting the Scenarios to Facilitate Compelling Communication using Different Media

This day focuses on translating scenario outcomes into direction and action. Participants examine how to differentiate adaptive responses from transformative action and set priorities for organisational strategies. The topics covered will include:

• Looking at the Scenarios to Provide Direction: Adapting to and Influencing / Transforming the System
• Appreciating What can be done alone and also through Partnerships
• Discovering What can and must be done based upon What could happen
• Pausing, Reflecting and Making meaning of both Adaptive and Transformative Meanings and Implications
• Using a ‘Reverse SWOT’ in Adaptive Stance, using Roles, Responsibilities and Obligations in Transformative Stance
• Describing Future ‘Contexts’ and Defining their ‘Triggers’, ‘Early Warning Indicators’ and Appropriate ‘Planned Responses’

This day emphasises turning scenarios into actions that influence organisational systems. Participants explore how to frame initiatives, partnerships, and communication strategies that shape desirable futures. The topics covered will include:   

• Transforming the Scenarios to Actions: Goals / Policies, Objectives, Programs, Initiatives / Projects, Structures / Processes, Legislation, etc.
• Using the Insights into Possible Opportunities, Risks and Choices to Frame your Service Provision and Activities
• Leveraging Alliances and Partnerships to Work in New Ways
• Engaging with the World as a Collective Panel or Independently with more Aligned, Understandings, Insights, Relationships, Intentions and Wisdom
• Using Meetings, Briefings, Workshops, the Media (broadcast and social) and Spinoff Initiatives
• Utilising the Difference between Simply Distributing vs. Disseminating the Panel’s Outputs using Inspired Actors